I would like to take the time to thank Carol at Flu Wiki. She has been relentless in keeping tabs on the new outbreak of H1N1 from Mexico. Our Miss Carol has a background in Science. She has told me exactly what it is but I have forgotten. I just know that when I need something explained I go to her. lol
Here is her opinion requarding a question I asked her about this situation:
Thanks Carol. Not good at all. So question for you: what do you forecast happening over the next several months with this?
I have done a lot of thinking about your question since I read your E-mail yesterday. Only God knows what is going to happen with anything in the future but I will answer your question with my best guess based on what I am seeing south of the border. As you probably have noticed, I have been on top of this from the start.
I expect it to continue spreading throughout South America, Central America, Mexico and probably we will see cases here too. I will be very surprised if it just dies out. I won’t be surprised if it goes worldwide. If it does then WHO and TPTB will say it is just another “wave”. I say, depending on the genetic changes in the virus and the CFR, it could very well be a new pandemic.
cottontop, the strain in northern Mexico seems to be closely related to the strain in Honduras but slightly different from the one in Venezuela. Niman says the receptor binding domain change D225N is what has made the strain in Northern Mexico so lethal. From the first case, the CFR has been extremely high. Various news reports have given the positives from 38 up to about 70 cases in Juarez. Also various reports list the number of deaths at 4, or 6 or 7. I believe there has been at least 6 deaths and most likely 7 is the correct number. If the correct number is 6 then the CFR in Juarez would be 9% upto 16% bases on the cited number of positives. The CFR of the 1918 H1N1 strain of virus was between 2% and 5%.
I’m thinking the subclade in Venezuela has the same receptor binding domain change of D225N but just hasn’t evolved as much as the one circulating in Northern Mexico. (Niman says it has all the same changes as the strain in Mexico.) I think he is just guessing at that because the number of positives in Venezuela are over 1500 now and 12 people have died. See the difference in the behavior of the virus? The virus seems to be more contagious and less lethal. If it had all the same receptor binding site changes as the one in Juarez then you would see a higher CFR with the higher number of positives.
IMO, There are many, many more cases then what any country is saying. There are also cases in countries throughout the area but there are no news reports on them yet. I expect the number of countries reporting positive H1N1 cases to increase over the next 2 weeks.
I don’t know if this answers your question or not….I hope so. Just remember, this is just me guessing and I may be full of crap when all is said and done! LOL
I would like to hear of other opinions on this. What do you think?