By MIKE STOBBE (AP Medical Writer)
From Associated Press
July 24, 2009 11:23 AM EDT

ATLANTA – U.S. health officials say swine flu could strike up to 40 percent of Americans over the next two years and as many as several hundred thousand could die if a vaccine campaign and other measures aren’t successful.

Those estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mean about twice the number of people who usually get sick in a normal flu season would be struck by swine flu. Officials said those projections would drop if a new vaccine is ready and widely available, as U.S. officials expect.

The U.S. may have as many as 160 million doses of swine flu vaccine available sometime in October, and U.S. tests of the new vaccine are to start shortly, federal officials said this week.

The infection estimates are based on a flu pandemic from 1957, which killed nearly 70,000 in the United States but was not as severe as the infamous Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19. But influenza is notoriously hard to predict. The number of deaths and illnesses would drop if the pandemic peters out or if efforts to slow its spread are successful, said CDC spokesman Tom Skinner.



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•  Bulgaria has 5 more cases (Link)

•  Virus outbreak would create a budget nightmare for Interior Health (Link)
•  Nova Scotia announces first confirmed swine flu death (Link)

•  9 confirmed cases (Link)

•  31 potential swine flu cases (Link)

•  Greece reports first ‘serious’ swine flu case (Link)

•  Another student catches swine flu, total 22 (Link)
•  India is going to try Quarantines (Link)

•  Another suspected H1N1 infection found in Makassar (Link)

•  Kazakhstan reports first H1N1 flu (Link)
•  Blogger in Kazkhastan on flu there (Link)
•  Kazakh police try to stop flu girl reaching Almaty (Link)

•  Third case of H1N1 confirmed in Namibia (Link)

New Zealand
•  Swine flu deaths up to 14 (Link)

•  Russian woman and daughter contract swine flu in Bulgaria (Link)
•  10 people in hospital with suspected H1N1 in Yekaterinburg (Link)

•  Chinese Woman Dies From Swine Flu In Singapore (Link)

South Africa
•  H1N1 flu hits South African schools hard (Link)
•  Impact of swine flu on HIV positive people unknown (Link)

United Kingdom
•  High demand for flu info (Link)
•  Swine flu on a small island [Falklands] (Link)
•  Over 150 Swine Flu Brits In Quarantine (Link)
•  NHS has apparently extended the timeframe for Tamiflu (Link)
•  Estimates of intensive care overflow (Link)

United States
•  WV: Second swine flu case reported in Mercer (Link)
•  CA: Three additional cases of swine flu in Mendocino County (Link)
•  IN: Update on Pandemic H1N1 flu cases in Indiana  (Link)
•  FL: Swine flu case confirmed at FGCU (Link)
•  Joint Statement to Congress (Link)
•  U.S. Officials Call for FDA to Move on Vaccine Without Data from Clinical Trials (Link)
•  CDC: Up To 40% Of Americans May Get H1N1 Soon (Link)
•  NH DHHS Advises Residents to Prepare For Fall Flu Season (Link)
•  CA: 3 H1N1 cases at juvenile lockup (Link)
•  CDC list of U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection (Link)
•  Maryland Reports 4th H1N1 Related Death (Link)
•  CDC stops swine flu death count at 300 (Link)
•  Neb. H1N1 flu count reaches 313 (Link)
•  FL: Tenth H1N1 Death In Miami-Dade County Confirmed (Link)
•  MO: Hundreds volunteer to test swine flu vaccine (Link)

•  Copper could be used to inhibit swine flu (Link)
•  Crofsblogs: H1N1 attack rate higher than 1918 (Link)
•  Swine Flu May Cause Seizures in Children (Link)
•  EU Panel To Review H1N1 Vaccines Before Flu Season (Link)
•  Flu Chief Says Pandemic In Early Stages (Link)
•  1 in 6 public health workers unlikely to respond in pandemic flu emergency (Link)
•  WHO – Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 briefing note 4 (Link)
•  Ruby Princess quarantines people with flu-like symptoms (Link)
•  Helen Branswell Reports Possible Mismatch on Seasonal Vaccine (Link)
•  Virus in almost every country (Link)